{"created":"2023-05-15T12:55:55.267349+00:00","id":959,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"d7efe32e-7701-4c4e-9c85-89cbf9f6d1ce"},"_deposit":{"created_by":18,"id":"959","owners":[18],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"959"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:jicari.repo.nii.ac.jp:00000959","sets":["602","602:627"]},"author_link":["1336","1334","1335"],"item_10007_contributor_5":{"attribute_name":"研究分担者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"contributorNames":[{"contributorName":"Morishita, K."}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"1335","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"contributorNames":[{"contributorName":"Syson, L."}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"1336","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_10007_date_8":{"attribute_name":"報告年度","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2010-09-01","subitem_date_issued_type":"Issued"}]},"item_10007_description_11":{"attribute_name":"研究機関","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"JICA Research Institute","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_10007_description_13":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Climate models supporting the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report predict that climate change will\nincrease local temperatures and precipitation in monsoon regions in Asia, where the number of large\ncities is increasing and existing urban areas are expanding, particularly along the coasts. In this study,\nMetro Manila, typical of Asian coastal megacities, is used as a case study to comprehensively\nsimulate impacts of future climate change and identify necessary adaptation measures.\nIn spite of the various uncertainties inherent in predictions, this study translates future global climate\nscenarios to regional climate scenarios, a process called “downscaling”. The B1 and A1FI scenarios\nof the IPCC SRES framework provide a basis for discussing local temperature and precipitation\nchanges in Metro Manila. Based on these scenarios, hydrological conditions such as river overflow\nand storm surge were projected. Flood simulation maps were then constructed showing the range of\npotential spatial spreads, inundation depths and flooding durations anticipated in the metropolis.\nBased on the flood simulation maps, socio-economic impact analyses were applied to understand the\ncharacteristics and magnitude of flood damage anticipated in the year 2050. The benefit side of the\nanalysis calculated avoided damage at the aggregate level. Tangible direct losses were assessed as in\nconventional flood control project analyses. Incremental costs to transportation (VOC and time\ncosts), and lost wages and income (sales) due to flooding were combined for tangible indirect costs.\nNote that the simulated flood maps and impacts are some cases among a wide range of future\npossibilities resulting from a “cascade of uncertainties” inherent in the various steps of the\nmethodology.\nIf flood control infrastructure improvements were stopped now, and the A1FI climate scenario is\nassumed, a 100-year return period flood could cause aggregate damages of up to 24% of the GRDP,\nwhile damages from a 30-year return period flood would be about 15% of the GRDP. If, however,\ninfrastructure improvement based on the 1990 Master Plan is continued and climate scenario B1 is\nassumed, the projected damages would be only 9% of the GRDP for a 100-year return period flood,\nand 3% for a 30-year return period flood.\nFinally, options for adapting to the scenarios were selected, with the objective of eliminating as\nmuch as possible of the flooding projected in the flood simulations. Economic evaluations using\neconomic internal rate of return (EIRR) and net present value (NPV) were conducted by combining\nthe costs of the adaptation options with the damages avoided by implementing those options. The\nEIRR and NPV evaluations yielded different results, but they both suggest that filling the\ninfrastructure gap identified under the current Master Plan (for status quo climate) is the first and\nforemost priority.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_10007_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.18884/00000948","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2018-07-03"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"Impacts_of_Climate_Change_to_Asian_Coastal_Areas_The_Case_of_Metro_Manila.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"4.9 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_11","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"Impacts_of_Climate_Change_to_Asian_Coastal_Areas_The_Case_of_Metro_Manila","url":"https://jicari.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/959/files/Impacts_of_Climate_Change_to_Asian_Coastal_Areas_The_Case_of_Metro_Manila.pdf"},"version_id":"ab12a6d1-9ba0-4a21-89d3-fe43dde99f99"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_researcher":{"attribute_name":"研究代表者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Muto, Megumi"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"1334","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"research report","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18ws"}]},"item_title":"Impacts of Climate Change upon Asian Coastal Areas: The case of Metro Manila","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"Impacts of Climate Change upon Asian Coastal Areas: The case of Metro Manila"},{"subitem_title":"Impacts of Climate Change upon Asian Coastal Areas: The case of Metro Manila","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_type_id":"10007","owner":"18","path":["602","627"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2018-07-03"},"publish_date":"2018-07-03","publish_status":"0","recid":"959","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["Impacts of Climate Change upon Asian Coastal Areas: The case of Metro Manila"],"weko_creator_id":"18","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-05-15T13:09:10.179173+00:00"}